In July 2025, Bitcoin put on quite a show: since the start of the month, it has gained over 15%, and on July 14, it broke through $123,000 for the first time. Its market cap surpassed $2.4 trillion — more than giants like Amazon. What’s driving this growth, and what can we expect next? Here’s a simple breakdown.

📈 Why is Bitcoin rising?

✅ Institutional demand
Big investors — funds, banks, corporations — are entering Bitcoin via spot ETFs (like BlackRock’s). There’s also a trend of “Bitcoin treasuries,” where companies not only invest but hold crypto in corporate reserves.

✅ Macroeconomic factors
Expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut rates this fall, plus a weaker dollar, are making Bitcoin more attractive. Investors are seeking higher-yield, though riskier, assets.

✅ Technical breakout & short squeeze
Bitcoin had been trading sideways for a long time. Once it broke resistance, massive short liquidations added extra momentum.

✅ Risk appetite
Stock markets — Nasdaq, S&P 500 — are also hitting all-time highs. Investors are piling into tech, AI, and digital assets. Bitcoin is a natural extension of this trend.

💬 What do experts say?

• $150,000 by year-end is realistic, according to Bitget and Kronos Research.
• Growth won’t be straight up: corrections to $105,000–$115,000 are possible, especially due to profit-taking or geopolitical tensions.
• Keep an eye on inflation reports (like CPI on July 15) and Fed actions.
• Retail investors are still cautious, and the market is far from overheated — leaving room for further rally.

⚠️ What are the risks?

• If U.S. inflation picks up again, the Fed may delay rate cuts — bad news for risk assets.
• Political instability, especially in the U.S., could shake markets.
• The danger of FOMO (“fear of missing out”): many buy in at the top, and the market could sharply correct.

📊 What do indicators show?

• Spot price is above futures — a sign the market isn’t euphoric yet.
• Transaction count on the Bitcoin network is growing but still below peak levels (530–666k daily).
• NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) is at 0.69, below the overheating zone (0.75), signaling room for growth.
• Historic Pi Cycle Top indicator is not signaling a market top yet.

💡 What should investors do?

If you’re already holding Bitcoin — celebrate, but don’t forget about correction risks. If you’re thinking of entering — do it gradually, without chasing the hype. As Robert Kiyosaki said, “It’s better to own at least something than nothing.”

Former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao reminds us: Bitcoin once needed years to recover after crashes, but now growth can be explosive — and in the future, even $120,000 may look like just another milestone.